Government subsidies are narrowing. The supply and demand structure of the LED industry will gradually improve.
As an emerging industry, LED lighting has won the “pamper” of the country since 2009. The subsidies are huge. Even some government subsidies obtained by government in one year account for half of the performance, making it turn into a profit. According to statistics, taking Sanan Optoelectronics as an example, as a “subsidy brother” in the LED industry, from 2010 to 2015, the amount of subsidies exceeded 3 billion yuan.
According to analysis, the expected development trend is that with the maturity and reshuffle of the LED industry, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the government gradually adjusted the subsidy policy, and the upstream chip subsidies are gradually narrowing. The narrowing of subsidies at the government level will inhibit the disorderly expansion of LED chip production from the source of the industry chain, and it is expected to transfer subsidies to the LED lighting application terminal, which will pull the LED industry chain from the demand side, and the supply and demand structure of China's LED industry chain will gradually improve. .
LED lighting market penetration accelerates Small-pitch display will usher in an explosion
From October 1, 2016, incandescent lamps for general lighting of 15W and above are prohibited from being sold and imported. This is interpreted by the industry as a “ban”, and the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the domestic market will further accelerate. It is expected that the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the domestic market will reach 48% in 2017.
In 2016, it was a year of vigorous development of small-pitch LED screen products. Even in the third quarter, there was a situation in which the upstream goods were out of stock and the supply exceeded demand. In 2016, the total demand for LEDs with small pitch indoors and outdoors was 141.3 billion, while the current production capacity of small-pitch LEDs is around 70 billion, and there is still a large gap between supply and demand in the future. We expect a small pitch display to erupt in the next 2-3 years.
In 2017, the replacement rate of small-pitch LEDs to DLP can reach 40-50% or more, and by 2020, the replacement rate is expected to reach 70%-80%.
LED manufacturer's new blue sea 2017 infrared LED / laser lighting welcome unlimited business opportunities
The introduction of biometrics, including smart phones, tablets and wearable devices, will continue to increase rapidly. The use of IRLED components in applications such as iris and face recognition will make the future market have potential for growth. It is estimated that by 2020, the output value of IR LED output (excluding sensors) will reach 710 million US dollars (about 4.71 billion yuan), and the annual compound growth rate will reach 24%, becoming the new blue ocean of LED manufacturers.
On November 13, 2016, Nakamura Shuji Laser Lighting Lab was unveiled in Shenzhen. Laser illumination has a smaller light-emitting area, higher luminous efficiency, easier sensory focus and longer illumination distance, and can be widely used in automobile headlights and other fields. In automotive lighting applications, world-renowned car brands such as BMW and Audi are working to apply this technology to new products. However, due to the current high cost of laser lighting, the application rate is not high, I believe that the future will be a big trend.
The backward production capacity is gradually phased out. The LED industry has entered the era of stable income from the era of excessive competition.
Since the second half of 2016, with the continuous increase of raw materials such as circuit boards and gold wires, as well as the increase in labor and rental costs, LED companies have also shifted from price wars to “value wars”. Since 2016, LED chips and packaging have increased in price successively, marking the end of the overall reshuffle of LED industry chains, and the industry has entered a stable income era from the era of excessive competition. It is expected that in 2017, under the price hike of the overall LED industry, some non-competitive SMEs will gradually be eliminated from the market. Future orders will gradually be concentrated in major manufacturers, and the phenomenon of Evergrande, the largest LED industry, will become more apparent.